Development of IDF Curves Based on RCP4.5 Scenario for 30-Reservoirs in South Korea
RCP4.5 시나리오에 따른 IDF 곡선 분석: 우리나라 30개 저수지를 대상으로
- 한국농공학회지 Volume 13 Issue 6 Pages.145-159 2013
- Park, Jihoon, Kang, Moon Seong, Song, Inhong, Hwang, Soon Ho, Song, Jung-Hun
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the selected 30-Reservoirs in South Korea. A bias inherent in future precipitation data based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario was corrected by a quantile mapping method. The trends in future precipitation changes were analyzed for the three different time periods (correspond to 2025s: 2011~2040, 2055s: 2041~2070, and 2085s: 2071~2100). Gumbel distribution was selected as the probability distribution and parameters were estimated by probability weighted moment method. Rainfall intensity of Han, Geum and Yeongsan river watersheds was greatly increased in 2085s period than 1990s period. Rainfall intensity of Nakdong river watershed appeared to increase sharply in 2025s period than 1990s period. The newly developed IDF curve might enhance the stability of agricultural reservoirs through considering climate change impact into structure design process.
https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2013.13.6.145