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Evaluating the 2019 NARO-APCC Joint Crop Forecasting Service yield forecasts for Northern Hemisphere countries.
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2023-05-02
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69


ABSTRACT: Forecasting global food production is of growing importance in the context of globalizing food supply chains and observed increases in the frequency of climate extremes. The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization– Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (NARO-APCC) Crop Forecasting Service provides yield forecasts for global cropland on a monthly basis using seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts as the main inputs, and 1 year of testing the operation of the service was recently completed. Here we evaluate the forecasts for the 2019 yields of major commodity crops by comparing with the reported yields and forecasts from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Forecasts for maize, wheat, soybean, and rice were evaluated for 20 countries located in the Northern Hemisphere, including 39 crop-producing states in the United States, for which 2019 reported yields were already publicly available. The NARO-APCC forecasts are available several months earlier than the JRC and USDA forecasts. The skill of the NARO-APCC forecasts was good in absolute terms, but the forecast errors in the NARO-APCC forecasts were almost always larger than those of the JRC and USDA forecasts. The forecast errors in the JRC and USDA forecasts decreased as the harvest approached, whereas those in the NARO-APCC forecasts were rather stable over the season, with some exceptions. Although this feature seems to be a disadvantage, it may turn into an advantage if skillful forecasts are achievable in the earlier stages of a season. We conclude by discussing relative advantages and disadvantages and potential ways to improve global yield forecasting. KEYWORDS: Climate prediction; Regression analysis; Forecast verification/skill; Seasonal forecasting; Agriculture; Climate services
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A review of global gridded cropping system data products.
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Abstract Agricultural monitoring, seasonal crop forecasting and climate change adaptation planning all require identifying where, when, how and which crops are grown. Global gridded cropping system data products offer useful information for these applications. However, not only the main sources of i..
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Findings from the Technical Consultation for the Plant Pests and Diseases Data Collection in Establishing an Early Warning Service
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Pests and diseases early warning services require a standardized framework of data collection and sharing to minimize errors and make sure that they are timely and of early warning nature. An online technical consultation for plant pests and diseases data collection and sharing was held on 5, 12 and..